the top of the cycle?

In Lisbon for HEDNA a couple of weeks ago at my old Corinthia hotel. I'm told the property, and Lisbon generally, are having a good year. The mood at the meeting among the industry was pretty good overall too, but you can't help but feel that the party won't last much longer - maybe Asia being an exception. The rule of thumb for the hotel industry is that we move in 6-7 year cycles. I remember helping to open a hotel in Budapest in the dead winter of early 2002 and wondering how on earth we were going to fill 400 rooms (we didn't). Since that point we've all been making hay while the sun shines, but too many economic indicators are swinging down and travel is always one of the first casualties of a tight corporate budget. Of course, as ever, the supply of new rooms will continue way beyond the peak of demand so we can expect heavy pressure on room rates in the coming months. It may not hit us hard in 2008 for 2009 rates, but I'm sure 12 months from now the 2010 negotiations will be a different story. And what prospect then for hotels to impose dynamic pricing?